Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 960 (S07E24) produced two C-flares. The largest of which was a C6.6/1f flare at 05/1613 UTC. The region continues to be in decay, however it maintains a beta gamma delta magnetic classification.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 960 is still capable of producing M-flares with a slight chance for an X-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

• Class M 60/60/50
• Class X 15/15/10
• Proton 10/10/05
• PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Jun 081
• Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01