Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 5, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
three C-class events. The first was a C2 at 2225 UTC from newly
numbered Region 776 (S05E71). The second was a C1/Sf at 0328 UTC
from Region 772 (S18W18), and the third was a C3 at 1350 UTC from
Region 776. Region 776 rotated into view today as a moderate-sized
D-type group and was the most active region on the disk. Region 772
(S18W18) appears to have become less complex during the past 24

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from 772 or 776 during the next three days (06-08 June).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal
hole, beginning at about 2300 UTC. The high speed stream resulted in
increased geomagnetic activity and led to a single, minor storm
interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled
since 0900 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (06-07 June), due to persistence
of the high speed stream and due to possible effects from the recent
eruptive solar events of 03/0411 UTC (M1/CME) and 03/2355 UTC
(C6/Type II/Type IV). Predominantly unsettled levels are expected
for the third day (08 June).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Jun 105
  • Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 110/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/018
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 015/020-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/20
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 25/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.