Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 05 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
three C-class events. The first was a C2 at 2225 UTC from newly
numbered Region 776 (S05E71). The second was a C1/Sf at 0328 UTC
from Region 772 (S18W18), and the third was a C3 at 1350 UTC from
Region 776. Region 776 rotated into view today as a moderate-sized
D-type group and was the most active region on the disk. Region 772
(S18W18) appears to have become less complex during the past 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from 772 or 776 during the next three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal
hole, beginning at about 2300 UTC. The high speed stream resulted in
increased geomagnetic activity and led to a single, minor storm
interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled
since 0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (06-07 June), due to persistence
of the high speed stream and due to possible effects from the recent
eruptive solar events of 03/0411 UTC (M1/CME) and 03/2355 UTC
(C6/Type II/Type IV). Predominantly unsettled levels are expected
for the third day (08 June).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Jun 105
- Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/018
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 015/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/20
- Minor storm 20/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/25
- Minor storm 25/25/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
