Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W28) became more simplified during the period with a continued
decay in the sunspot area and further weakening of the regions beta
magnetic configuration. Although Region 625 (S12W82) is now
spotless, it managed to produce a minor B-class flare at 05/0604Z.
Regions 626 (N05W06) and 627 (S08E30) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Jun 085
  • Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 085/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/008-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.