Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 05 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W28) became more simplified during the period with a continued
decay in the sunspot area and further weakening of the regions beta
magnetic configuration. Although Region 625 (S12W82) is now
spotless, it managed to produce a minor B-class flare at 05/0604Z.
Regions 626 (N05W06) and 627 (S08E30) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Jun 085
- Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 085/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01