Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 05 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 788 (S06E32) produced a
C1/Sf flare with an observed optical Y-shaped ribbon at 05/1526 UTC.
This event had an associated partial halo CME which was first
observed in the LASCO imagery at 05/1530 UTC. There were two other
CME’s observed by LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. One was
at 04/2130 UTC and the second was observed at 05/0330 UTC. Both of
these appear to be backside events and not Earth directed. Region
786 (N12E23) has lost its delta magnetic configuration and has
decreased in total sunspot count. Region 783 (S03W22) has grown and
is now around 530 millionths of white light area coverage and has
developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A 26 degree long
filament disappeared from S22W22 between 05/0205-1220 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Both Regions 783 and 786 are capable of producing and isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 06-07 July. Quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 08
July due to the effects of the partial halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
- Class M 45/45/45
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Jul 127
- Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 130/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/15
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
