Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 620 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (06 – 08 January).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Jan 089
• Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 013/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/008-005/015-005/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05