Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12W64) produced an impulsive C4/Sf flare at 0923 UTC. There was a Type II sweep (estimated shock speed approx. 1100 km/s) associated with the flare. This event followed soon after a long duration B8 x-ray flare from nearby Region 841 (N13W91) which attained maximum at 0742 UTC. The activity was preceded by plage brightenings in both regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 843 could produce an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A high speed solar wind stream may boost activity slightly during the last two days of the period.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Jan 083
• Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01