Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 05 2253 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days (06-08 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at ACE continues its downward trend with current values around 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next two days (06-07 February). Activity is expected to be unsettled on the third day (08 February).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Feb ???
• Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01