Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some unsettled intervals for 06 February. Quiet levels should predominate for 07-08 February.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Feb 076
• Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 077/077/077
• 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01