Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 5, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Multiple
C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the
largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z. This is
likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178). LASCO imagery
depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do
not appear to be Earth directed. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels throughout the period.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6
Feb). Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor
storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

  • Class M 40/45/50
  • Class X 05/10/10
  • Proton 01/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Feb 095
  • Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/115/125
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-015/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/35/35
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/45/35
  • Minor storm 05/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.