Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Multiple
C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the
largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z. This is
likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178). LASCO imagery
depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do
not appear to be Earth directed. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6
Feb). Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor
storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
- Class M 40/45/50
- Class X 05/10/10
- Proton 01/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Feb 095
- Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/115/125
- 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/35/35
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/45/35
- Minor storm 05/25/15
- Major-severe storm 01/15/05