Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2003
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-class
flare of C2.1 occurred at 05/2037 UTC which was optically
uncorrelated. Regions 276 (S13E27), 277 (S20E54), and 278 (N19E65)
continue to show activity with several occurrences of B-class
flaring.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a moderate chance of C-class flaring, and a slight chance of
isolated M-class flaring from regions 276, 277, and 278.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continued high-speed
stream associated with a coronal hole structure. The greater than
2MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been at high
levels for most of the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled through tomorrow, with isolated
active periods throughout. These conditions should remain for the
next 24-48 hours due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Feb 140
- Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 145/145/150
- 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Obser
- ved Afr/Ap 04 Feb 014/024
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
