Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
February 5, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Feb 2003

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-class
flare of C2.1 occurred at 05/2037 UTC which was optically
uncorrelated. Regions 276 (S13E27), 277 (S20E54), and 278 (N19E65)
continue to show activity with several occurrences of B-class

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a moderate chance of C-class flaring, and a slight chance of
isolated M-class flaring from regions 276, 277, and 278.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continued high-speed
stream associated with a coronal hole structure. The greater than
2MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been at high
levels for most of the last 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled through tomorrow, with isolated
active periods throughout. These conditions should remain for the
next 24-48 hours due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Feb 140
  • Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 145/145/150
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • ved Afr/Ap 04 Feb 014/024
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.