Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 826 (S06W35) continues to decrease in area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 07 December.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

• Class M 10/10/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Dec 092
• Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 005/007-008/012-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01