Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Dec 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Dec 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A B3.1 flare occurred at
05/1710 from Region 706 (S07W74). No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC due to the arrival of a CME
which occurred on 03 December. A shock was observed at ACE at
05/0656. A sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer
at 05/0747 with a deviation of 47 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period is
possible on 06 December.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

• Class M 10/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Dec 096
• Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 095/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/015-008/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05