Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 5, 2003
Filed under ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of minor C-class flares, the largest a C2 flare at 1019Z from Region
513 (N12W47). Region 517 (S06E07) is in a gradual decay phase,
decreasing slightly in area size from yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. At
approximately 0200Z the total field measurement of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased to 20 nT. The Bz
component of the IMF, after an initial northward direction, turned
southward for nearly ten hours, then began a north-south
oscillation. This signature is similar to that of a co-rotating
interaction region preceding the onset of a high speed stream, but
may include transient effects from a faint halo CME that occurred on
02 December. The ten hour period of southward Bz, together with
solar wind speed near 475 km/s produced minor storm levels for most
of the day.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated periods
of minor storm levels are possible on 06-07 December. By 08
December, activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Dec 112
  • Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 110/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 030/042
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 025/035-020/035-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/30
  • Minor storm 30/30/15
  • Major-severe storm 20/20/05

SpaceRef staff editor.