Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (6 August), quiet to unsettled on day two (7 August), and unsettled to active on day three (8 August). The increase in activity is forecast due to a corotating interaction region.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Aug 067
• Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/30
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/15/30
• Minor storm 01/01/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01