Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be initially quiet for the first day (6 August). However, an increase in activity levels to unsettled to active is expected mid-to-late day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should predominate on the second day (7 August) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity should decrease to generally unsettled levels by the third day (8 August).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Aug 069
• Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 000/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/015-015/020-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/45/20
• Minor storm 10/20/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 15/25/15
• Major-severe storm 05/15/10