Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 655 (S09W09)
has decreased in both sunspot count and white light coverage in the
past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 07-08 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Aug 089
• Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 090/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 005/008-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05