Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Aug 2003
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 424 (S18E26)
produced an impulsive M1.7/Sn at 05/1249 UTC and a C1.1 flare at
05/1955 UTC. Region 421 (S07W43) produced a C3.5/Sf flare at
05/0914. Region 424 showed some growth in size and complexity. New
Region 429 (S24E55) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with C-class flares possible from Regions 424 or 425, and a slight
chance of isolated M-class flares from Region 424.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds
continued a steady decrease as the coronal hole moves out of
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on day one.
Activity may increase to unsettled to minor storm conditions on days
two and three due to a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position. Isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes are
possible days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Aug 131
- Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/140/140
- 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/020-025/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/45/35
- Minor storm 20/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/35/35
- Minor storm 25/30/25
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
