Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16W26) produced two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 05/1307 UTC and a C8.1 at 05/1521 UTC. New region 868 (S07W06) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 865 or 867.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor storm periods were observed from 05/0900 to 1200 UTC and 05/1200 to 1500 UTC. Heightened activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz coupled with an increase in the total magnetic field.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods possible on 06 April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr

• Class M 25/25/25
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Apr 099
• Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 016/028
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 010/012-008/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01