Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Sep 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
September 4, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Sep 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed on the Muana Loa coronagraph at 04/1701 UTC likely associated with a long duration B2.8 flare on the west limb. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A major storm period was observed between 04/0300 – 0600 UTC due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 410 km/s to 630 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible due to the continued effects from the coronal hole high speed stream on 05 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06 and 07 September.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Sep 079
  • Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 080/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 006/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 010/012-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/10
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.