Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Sep 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
September 5, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Sep 04 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N10W65) produced a
long duration C2 flare at 1506 UTC. This event was associated with
the eruption of a large filament. Region 805 (S11W30) remains the
only region with spots on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 805.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming occurred between 0600 – 1200 UTC as Bz fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT and the solar wind speed increased from about 550
km/s to 750 km/s. At time of issue, solar wind speed was about 625
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05 September, with a
chance for isolated minor storming due to the effects of the CME
associated with the long duration B4 flare on 01 September.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 06 September.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 September.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Sep 075
  • Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/032
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 017/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 012/015-008/012-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.