Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Sep 2003
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed
at 04/1449Z. The likely source of this small flare was Region 452
(S08W84). New Region 453 (S23W44), numbered today as a D-class beta
group, emerged rather quickly over the past 24 hours and exhibited
occasional plage fluctuations. New Region 454 (S10E22) was also
numbered today. The remaining active regions were either steady or
in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This weak disturbance
is due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds began
the period slightly elevated near 500 km/s, but gradually increased
to 650 – 700 km/s by the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through day one.
The high speed solar wind speed is expected to subside by day 2
resulting in a return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Sep 112
- Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 115/120/125
- 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 014/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 018/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
