Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1003 (S23E28) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated minor storm conditions observed for the period of 04/0600Z. Although velocities reflect a gradual decrease, to around 570 km/s, solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a continued influence from the high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 05 October. Mostly quiet conditions should return for 06-07 October as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Oct 067
• Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 010/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01