Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was first observed off the west limb on LASCO imagery at 04/0854 UTC. This CME probably originated from active Region 915 (S06, L=291) which rotated around the west limb on 03 October. The ejecta was directed to the west and is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Oct 077
• Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 006/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 004/005-002/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01