Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Oct 2005

By SpaceRef Editor

October 5, 2005

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 04 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Old active Region 808 (S10, L=232) is rotating into view on the southeast limb and still appears relatively complex. Several B-class flares were observed including a long-duration B7 flare at 04/0622Z. This long-duration event was associated with a prominence eruption and CME on the southeast limb. A large loop structure was also observed near this location on EIT imagery. Newly numbered Region 813 (S06E30) emerged this period as a moderately complex and compact beta-gamma group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Old Region 808, which is currently rotating onto the visible disk, may produce C-class activity. Newly numbered Region 813 also has C-class flare potential. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 05 October. Isolated unsettled to active periods are possible on 06 and 07 October.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct