Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. A C2.6 flare occurred at
04/1325 UTC from a region on the east limb at S11. A coronal mass
ejection was associated with this event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a possibility for C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Oct 091
• Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 095/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 007/015
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05