Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No spotted regions appear
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (5 November) due to possible
effects from the CME of 31 October. Quiet conditions will return on
day 2 and 3 (6-7November).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 071
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 008/008-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/20
Minor storm 20/01/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01