Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Nov 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
November 5, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1007 (N36W52) produced a C1.0 flare at 0330Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 1007 has a chance of producing another C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (05-06 November). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (07 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Nov 068
  • Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 069/069/069
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/001
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 005/005-005/008-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/50
  • Minor storm 01/01/35
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/25
  • Minor storm 01/01/50
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/20

SpaceRef staff editor.