Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 921 (S06W11) and 922 (S14E03) are largely unchanged since yesterday. Very small x-ray

enhancements occurred occasionally. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next 3 days.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Nov 086
• Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05