Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10W44) produced several low level B-class flares during the past 24 hours. No spots are currently visible in Region 934 (S07W25).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 05 May. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 May 083
• Predicted 05 May-07 May 080/080/075
• 90 Day Mean 04 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05