Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 May 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 May 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a single C1 x-ray flare
in Region 758 (S07E51) at 04/1415 UTC. Otherwise, only a few B-class
flares occurred in both Regions 756 (S07W52) and 758.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly very low to low with a small chance of an M-class flare.
Regions 756 and 758 are expected to be the source of these flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 May 109
• Predicted 05 May-07 May 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 04 May 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-005/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01