Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 04 2250 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTION ::::::::::

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 601 (S09W77)
produced several low B-class flares. No significant development was
observed in regions on the visible disk. New Region 605 (S12W02) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 601 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm conditions
on days one and two (5-6 May) as a coronal hole high speed wind
stream moves into geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (7 May).

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 May 087
• Predicted 05 May-07 May 095/095/090
• 90 Day Mean 04 May 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 018/020-015/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/30/30
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/35/30
• Minor storm 30/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05