Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 04 2250 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTION ::::::::::

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 601 (S09W77)
produced several low B-class flares. No significant development was
observed in regions on the visible disk. New Region 605 (S12W02) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 601 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm conditions
on days one and two (5-6 May) as a coronal hole high speed wind
stream moves into geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (7 May).

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 May 087
  • Predicted 05 May-07 May 095/095/090
  • 90 Day Mean 04 May 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 018/020-015/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/30
  • Minor storm 30/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.