Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 May 2003

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W47)
produced a long duration C1 event at 04/0301 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. This region continues to fluctuate
daily in white light area and sunspot count, but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 348 (S35W44) has grown in
area and sunspot count since yesterday and also developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 353 (S16E33) and 354
(N19E58) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 have the potential to produce a low
level M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 06 May – 07 May as a
result of a coronal hole high speed flow.

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

• Class M 60/50/50
• Class X 10/05/05
• Proton 05/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 May 142
• Predicted 05 May-07 May 135/130/125
• 90 Day Mean 04 May 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/015-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/40/40
• Minor storm 20/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10