Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field activity increased to unsettled levels during 04/0000 – 0300Z. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the increase was associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz combined with enhanced IMF Bt and a modest increase in velocities.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (05 – 07 March).

III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Mar 070
• Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01