Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data indicate a solar sector boundary crossing at about 04/0200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day (5 March). Conditions should increase slightly to quiet to unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days (6-7 March) due to recurrent effects from a small, low-latitude coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Mar 073
• Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 073/073/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 000/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/007-007/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05