Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A small, 5-degree filament near S21E10 disappeared sometime between 1525Z and 1757Z. A few small spots have re-emerged in Region 856 (S10E01).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours (05 March). Conditions should be predominantly quiet for 06-07 March.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Mar 075
• Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 077/077/077
• 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01