Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 4, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 567
(S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout
the period. The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at
04/1007Z. A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a
cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center. An emerging
flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing
umbra, was assigned today. The remainder of the disk and limb were
quiet today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low
level M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high
speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the
middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this
writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Mar 098
  • Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 105/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/015
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/010-007/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.