Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2003

By SpaceRef Editor

March 4, 2003

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Mar 2003 — sun

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare
occurred at 03/2105Z from a spotless plage field near S27E72. A
large coronal mass ejection off the SE limb was observed on
coronagraph imagery following this flare. There have been no white
light developments near the source region in the past 24 hours and
no other significant activity was noted. Region 296 (N11E21) remains
the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and now measures
approximately 650 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Despite the size and complexity of this region, it has been rather
quiet with just occasional plage fluctuations and minor surges
observed. New Regions 301 (N21E36) and 302 (N19E62) were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible primarily from
Region 296, with a slight chance of a low M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to a high
speed coronal hole stream that began late in the day yesterday.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels early, but will
return to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one as the high
speed stream subsides. Isolated active periods at mostly higher
latitudes are possible through the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar