Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jun 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 960 (S08E38) produced an M8.9/3b flare at 04/0513 UTC with an associated 130 sfu Tenflare. There is some decay in area of the central and trailing spots of this region, however it remains a complex beta gamma delta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 04/1500 UTC and 04/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
- Class M 70/70/70
- Class X 20/20/20
- Proton 15/15/15
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Jun 086
- Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
