Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. B-class flares were observed from newly numbered Region 892 (S08E67). This new region rotated into view today as a small, but moderately complex sunspot cluster.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 892.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storming. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 05 and 06 May. A large recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 07 May and produce active to minor storm periods.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jun 076
• Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/008-005/008-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/40
• Minor storm 01/01/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/15/50
• Minor storm 01/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10