Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 772 (S17W06) has
produced several C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The largest
was a C6/Sn at 03/2355 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 774 (N05W06)
and 775 (N12E75). Region 775 is possibly the return of old Region
759 which produced several C-class and some M-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 772.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
The solar wind features indicate the increased geomagnetic activity
is associated with the possible onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions possible. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed stream, the influence of the M1 CME on 03 June, and the
activity from today’s event at 23/2355 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Jun 097
- Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 100/105/110
- 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10