Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jun 2003

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low with just a couple low level
C-class flares. All of these were from Region 375 (N11E39), which is
the largest group on the disk and was the most active. The group
appeared to be developing a bit of magnetic complexity and was a
beta-gamma group as of forecast file time. New Region 377 (N04E71)
was assigned today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a fair chance, however, for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 375 sometime during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
minor storm period from 2100-2400 UTC on 03 June. Solar wind data
continue to show the presence of a high speed solar coronal hole
wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be
predominantly active with occasional minor storm periods at high
latitudes as the current disturbance continues.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

• Class M 35/35/35
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jun 106
• Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 105/105/105
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 019/026
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 020/027
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 25/25/25
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 30/30/30
• Major-severe storm 15/15/15