Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind at ACE started the period at 03/2100 UTC with 438 km/s, increased to a peak of 652 km/s at 04/0931 UTC, and has steadily declined to around 480 km/s at forecast issue time. The IMF Bz also experienced minor fluctuations throughout the period from +/- 7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 05 July. Quiet conditions are expected for 06-07 July.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jul 072
• Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01