Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 4, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 641
(N14E54) produced a B4 x-ray flare at 04/1520 UTC. This region is
spotless plage which rotated onto the disk on 02 July. Other disk
regions were relatively stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Jul 079
  • Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/008-008/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.