Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flare activity occurred. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05 – 07 January).

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jan 069
• Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 008/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01