Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 980 (S06E29) produced one low level B-class flare during the past 24 hours. The region continued to decay and is now classified as a simple Axx sunspot group. New Region 981 (N30E22) is classified as a Cso beta sunspot group. This region is likely a new solar cycle sunspot group. A very faint backsided CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 4/1454Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods for the forecast period (5-7 January). Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes on 7 January.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jan 079
• Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 001/001
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 008/008-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10