Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (05 – 07 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 640 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (05 – 07 January). Active periods are possible on 07 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Jan 089
• Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05