Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N05W19)
produced several C-class flares, including a C7.3/Sf at 04/1113 UTC.
Region 715 continues to decay in size and magnetic complexity. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 715 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
at ACE remains elevated at about 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 5 January due to continued high
speed solar wind. As the coronal hole producing this elevated wind
moves out of geoeffective position, geomagnetic conditions should
subside to quiet to unsettled on 6-7 January.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
- Class M 20/20/15
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Jan 088
- Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 014/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 015/024
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
