Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S10E38) has
produced several low C-class flares. The region has indicated some
weak polarity intermixing in the past twenty-four hours but remains
a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storm
conditions possible for 05-07 January. This is due to the solar
wind high speed stream continuing through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Jan 119
- Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 125/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 025/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10