Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S10E38) has
produced several low C-class flares. The region has indicated some
weak polarity intermixing in the past twenty-four hours but remains
a beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storm
conditions possible for 05-07 January. This is due to the solar
wind high speed stream continuing through the period.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Jan 119
  • Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 125/125/120
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/026
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 025/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 020/025-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.