Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless and there were no flares observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The disturbance in the solar wind continued from yesterday. Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflect a possible CME signature associated with this disturbance.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 February. Predominately quiet levels are expected for 06-07 February.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Feb 070
• Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01