Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. A weak, faint CME was observed in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 coronagraphs beginning at 0923Z. The signature on the ahead coronagraph gave the appearance of a limb event and the signature on the behind spacecraft looked like a very faint halo event. Associated disk signatures were clearly observed near S15E20 using the STEREO-B EUVI 195 images which showed an eruptive type of event, likely the result of a filament eruption.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (05-07 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE shows a continuing downward trend as the influence of the high speed stream is waning. The solar wind speed at forecast issue time was around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07 February).

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Feb 071
• Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 02/02/02

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01